Our Andy Schooler believes he's found a way to get 11/5 about a Barcelona win over Arsenal in the Champions League on Tuesday.
Neymar, Suarez and Messi offer goals aplenty but Barca often concede at the other end
Arsenal v Barcelona (1945 GMT)
Better judges than I will have already told you that Barcelona possess arguably the best front three ever assembled and Arsenal have a massive task on their hands to avoid a sixth straight last-16 exit in the Champions League. The trident of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar make the holders an almost irresistible force and it's no surprise to see a side unbeaten in their last 32 matches odds-on across the board to head back to the Nou Camp with a lead. You'll only get a little more backing their attackers to find the net, although it is interesting to see Messi still a shorter 'anytime' price than Suarez despite the latter's better scoring rate this season (41 in 37 games to Messi's 27 in 31). Suarez has scored in each of his last seven (12 goals in those games in total) and will surely have his backers against an Arsenal defence denied the pace of Gabriel Paulista through injury. If there's a chink to be found in the bookies' armour then it may well be in their pricing of the Barca win sub-markets. It's hard to argue they are not the better team here and should win. But look closely at their recent results and you find they've conceded in eight of their last 10 matches, while Bayer Leverkusen and Roma scored in both group-stage games against them. Dig deep for long-term trends and the following stat emerges - Barca have conceded in nine of their last 10 knockout-phase games away from the Nou Camp. They also let in two at the Emirates in both 2010 and 2011. In short, their defence is not the greatest but the fact is often masked by their attacking talent. With Arsenal's strength also going forward, backing the away win with both sides scoring looks to have some value at 11/5. Alexis Sanchez, up against his former club, has the talent to unlock any defence, while Olivier Giroud is a player I feel continues to be underrated by most. Certainly if Arsenal do look to go more direct - something they did to good effect against Leicester the other week - then Giroud will be a threat. Theo Walcott's pace is a major weapon and even Danny Welbeck has shown what a danger he can be with his recent cameo appearances following long-term a lay-off. The Gunners have scored in 14 of their last 15 home games in this competition (in knockout games it's 10 of the last 11) and with that in mind I feel the 11/5 looks a strong option for those not wanting to get involved with the odds-on win price.Verdict: Arsenal 1 Barcelona 2
Opta facts:
- Arsenal, who finished second in Group F behind Bayern Munich, are the only team alongside Real Madrid to have reached the knockout stages of the Champions League every season since the new format in 2003/04. They have however been knocked out in the last 16 in each of the last five seasons.
- Barcelona have reached the semi-finals in seven of the last eight campaigns. The only exception was in 2013/14 season, when they were knocked out in the quarter-finals by Atletico Madrid.
- Barcelona have won the Champions League in four of the last 10 seasons. No other team has won it more than once in the same period. They could become the first team since AC Milan to win back-to-back European Cup/Champions League titles. The Rossoneri did it in 1989 & 1990.
- Barcelona have come out on top in each of their three previous Champions League home & away knockout encounters with Arsenal: 2006 final (2-1), 2009/10 quarter-final (6-3 on agg.) and 2010/11 Last 16 (4-3 on agg.).
- Arsenal and Barcelona's seven previous Champions League encounters have produced 27 goals, an average of 3.86 per game.
- Arsenal have lost their Last 16 home tie in each of the previous three seasons, every time by a two goal margin (v Bayern Munich in 2012/13 and 2013/14, v Monaco in 2014/15).
- Arsenal have scored in their last 13 Champions League games, their best run since their 21 games in a row from October 2003 to November 2005.
- Barcelona have won 15 of their 19 Champions League games since last season (D2 L2). They've also never failed to score in those 19 games.
- Neymar has scored seven goals in his last five Champions League knockout games.
- Lionel Messi has scored six goals in four Champions League games against Arsenal. However, he has yet to score at the Emirates with Barcelona.
Recommended SURE BET:
SOCCER PREDICTIONS FOR TUESDAY
23-02-2016
EUROPE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE:
Arsenal – Barcelona 2WIN
Juventus - Bayern Munich 2X
ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP:
Birmingham - Bolton 1WIN
Bristol City – Brighton 2X
Juventus v Bayern Munich (1945)
The announcement that Pep Guardiola will take over at Manchester City in the summer may have been followed by three straight defeats for the men from the Etihad Stadium but at the Allianz Arena it's been business as usual with Bayern having now won nine of their last 10 games, drawing the other. But they face a real test of resolve here, heading to Turin with a makeshift defence with Jerome Boateng, Javi Martinez and Holger Badstuber all out. There's the prospect of youngster Joshua Kimmich - a midfielder by trade - being paired with loan signing Serdar Tasci at the back, although Mehdi Benatia could return which would be a welcome boost to Guardiola, a manager whose Bayern legacy will be at stake over the next few weeks and months. The Spaniard was brought in to bring the Champions League trophy back to the club but they've come up short in the past couple of years and won't be relishing this trip across the Alps. After a poor start to the season, Juve have started to fire and they've now won 18 of their last 20, including victory over Serie A title rivals Napoli only 10 days ago. A 13-match winning run was ended on Friday by a goalless draw in Bologna but with Giorgio Chiellini and Mario Mandzukic both hopeful of recovering from injury, they will surely fancy their chances here. Mandzukic in particular will have revenge in mind having fallen out with Guardiola after he took over at Bayern. That traditionally solid defence which helped carry The Old Lady to last year's final did not concede at the Juventus Stadium in the group stage, while a 10-game winning run at the venue has included eight victories 'to nil'. Throw in the fact that Bayern have now lost five of their last 11 games away from home in this competition and the hosts look decent underdogs at north of 2/1. You may want to wait for the team news on Chiellini and Mandzukic before getting involved - they are big players for the hosts - but I don't have that option now so will suggest a small bet on the home win.Verdict: Juventus 1 Bayern Munich 0
Opta facts:
- Bayern Munich have made it to the semi-finals in five of the last six seasons.
- Juventus and Bayern Munich's only previous encounter in the knockout stages of the Champions League saw the Bavarian side progress 4-0 on aggregate in the quarter-finals of the 2012/13 edition.
- Bayern Munich have won their last two away games against Juventus in the Champions League (6 goals scored, 1 conceded).
- Juventus have yet to concede a goal at home in the Champions League this season.
- Juventus scored only six goals in this season's group stages, the lowest total among the 16 teams that made it to the knockout campaign.
- Juventus have lost only two of their last 34 home games in the Champions League (W22 D10). Both of those defeats were against Bayern Munich.
- Bayern Munich are winless in their last five away games in the Champions League knockout stages (D2 L3).
- Bayern Munich were the top scorers in this season's group stages alongside Real Madrid, netting 19 goals.
- Alvaro Morata has scored six goals in eight starts in the Champions League knockout phase.
- Robert Lewandowski has scored 30 Champions League goals since his debut in 2011/12. Only Cristiano Ronaldo (60) and Lionel Messi (43) have been more prolific over the same period.
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