The Atlético second leg, an all-or-nothing test Bayern cannot fail

Three seasons reduced to the span of 90 minutes. That is the situation which confronts manager Pep Guardiola on Tuesday, as his Bayern Munich side face Atlético de Madrid in the second leg of the Champions League semifinal.

Bayern: is a plan B necessary?

One of the most persistent complaints about Pep Guardiola’s management style has been the lack of an alternative strategy. While Guardiola’s Bayern is certainly different from the tiki taka Barcelona side which he led to so many titles, the principles remain the same: dominating possession, pressuring opponents without the ball, and an emphasis on technical ability to break down opponents’ defenses.

In the buildup to the first leg of this tie in Madrid, many, including myself, argued that ceding possession of the ball to Atlético would be a useful tactic. The idea was to force Diego Simeone’s men to build up attacks steadily, while taking them out of their strong defensive shell.

Instead, perhaps predictably, Guardiola decided to once again employ his “plan A.” To be fair, it nearly worked. Madrid were limited to a few opportunities in front of goal, and only managed to take the lead with a moment of individual brilliance from Saúl Ñíguez. Bayern created several decent chances, but in the end were unable to grab a crucial away goal.

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SOCCER PREDICTIONS FOR MONDAY 02-05-2016

Denmark » Superliga 2015/2016:

Esbjerg - Odense        1win

England » Premier League 2015/2016:

Chelsea – Tottenham                        1win  (BANKER GAME)

England » Championship 2015/2016:

Brighton – Derby                   (0:2)2 Alternative Handicap.                                              

Burnley - QPR                        1win(BANKER GAME)

Germany » Bundesliga 2015/2016:

Werder Bremen - VfB Stuttgart       over1 GOALS

Italy » Serie A 2015/2016:

Genoa - AS Roma                   2win  (BANKER GAME)                                

Napoli - Atalanta                   1win

France » Ligue 2 2015/2016:

Valenciennes – Nancy           (2:0)1 Alternative Handicap.           

Europe » Champions League Women 2015/2016:

Paris SG W - Lyon W             2win(BANKER GAME)

 


Now, back in the friendly confines of the Allianz Arena, there will be no question regarding Guardiola’s tactics.

Bayern will once again seek to monopolize possession and create a methodical attack, aiming to gradually prod their way through Atleti’s stout defense. Whether it succeeds will go a long way toward determining whether Pep was right to stubbornly stick to his tactics, or the detractors were right to call for more flexibility.

Atlético Madrid: straightforward task

Similarly, there is little doubt surrounding the game plan for Atleti. Simeone’s men will almost certainly employ similar tactics to the first leg, where their high pressure and stout defensive line created problems for Bayern.

Most importantly, though, Atleti know that an away goal would most likely seal the tie. Given the impressive defensive record which Atlético de Madrid boast, it seems highly unlikely that Bayern would be able to score three goals in order to overcome the Spaniards’ away goal advantage.

There are several ways Atleti can seek to make the crucial breakthrough. While another moment of individual skill like the first leg cannot be discounted, it seems more likely that Madrid would score through a counterattack or set piece.

The return of defensive stalwart Diego Godín will certainly aid their cause in the latter. Those who watched the 2014 Champions League final against Real Madrid will know the Uruguayan’s prowess in the air.

Bayern will also have to be cautious of Atlético’s pacy attackers, especially Antoine Griezmann. Though the young Frenchman was largely marginalized in the first leg, all it takes is one counterattack to set him through behind the defense. Even with the possible return of the speedier Jérôme Boateng, it seems unlikely that Bayern’s back line would be able to catch him.

Prediction – Bayern 2:1 Atlético

The Allianz will be rocking and the players will certainly be up for the most important match of the season. I see Bayern taking an early lead to level the aggregate scoreline, before conceding a killer away goal. Despite a late flurry of attacks, I believe Bayern will be unable to break through Atleti’s defense twice. A disappointing end to Pep’s final Champions League campaign.

CREDIT TO:http://www.bayerncentral.com/2016/05/atletico-champions-league-semi-second-leg-preview/