What's wrong with Duke? Youth, loss of Amile Jefferson lead to losses

Nine months removed from cutting down nets in Indianapolis, Duke doesn’t look like the Duke that America is used to seeing.
The Blue Devils have lost four of their last five Atlantic Coast Conference games, the latest defeat coming at Miami on Monday. Duke, ranked 20th in this week’s USA TODAY Sports coaches poll and 24th in the AP poll, is in danger of being unranked for the first time since 2007 when both new rankings come out Monday.
Barring a dramatic turnaround that would need to begin even before injured senior Amile Jefferson returns sometime next month, the Blue Devils don't look like a team that will challenge for the ACC title this season.
USA TODAY Sports spoke with three ACC coaches on Tuesday to find out exactly what ails Duke, and if Jefferson’s return alone will right the ship. The coaches spoke on the condition of anonymity because they did not want to talk publicly about another team in the conference.
To answer the latter question: Yes, multiple coaches said, Jefferson’s return will be huge for two key reasons: 1) it provides depth for a rotation that, right now, is only six-deep and lacks depth on the interior; and 2) it gives them more on-court veteran leadership. Duke was 8-1 with Jefferson in the lineup.

Duke Blue Devils players look disenchanted during a loss to Clemson on Jan. 13. (Photo: Dawson Powers, USA TODAY Sports)

But what’s caused Duke to struggle more than it has in recent years might be the result of the one-and-done model. It’s a high risk/high reward system, one that saw coach Mike Krzyzewski and the Blue Devils reap rewards from last season, which climaxed with an NCAA tournament championship. If a team has pro-ready freshmen — guys who play older than they are — then it’s possible to win a national title with them.
But the risks that come with the model are two-fold. Just ask Kentucky's John Calipari, who’s experienced both the extreme highs and lows himself.
First, because there’s a great deal of roster turnover, there’s a great deal of roster uncertainty. Duke didn’t expect Tyus Jones to necessarily be a one-and-done guy, but he left after a sensational freshman season. That led to Derryck Thornton, who graduated high school early to get to Duke this season, being thrust into a major role from Day 1 because otherwise the Blue Devils would have no true point guard.Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski, shown here with Chase Jeter, a high-profile freshman who has underachieved. (Photo: Steve Mitchell, USA TODAY Sports)

Second, the one-and-done model can make you more vulnerable to the talent level of the overall recruiting class, one coach pointed out. This year’s freshman class has been largely unimpressive and disappointing outside of LSU star Ben Simmons, though Duke’s Brandon Ingram — who struggled with college basketball’s physicality early on — has been playing terrific lately and has a high ceiling.
But if the class isn’t full of instant pros, like last season’s, then teams that rely heavily on freshmen will play like teams that rely heavily on inexperienced players, another coach said. For example, Duke’s guards struggle to stop dribble penetration and the team has had difficulty lately defending man-to-man so much so that Krzyzewski had his team play zone against Miami. The Blue Devils rank 149th in the nation in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com, though they boast the nation’s second-most efficient offense.

With so much of the season left, it’s not time to write off Duke — particularly with Jefferson set to return. But some of the root causes of this season’s growing pains may remain as long as Duke embraces multiple potential one-and-done players on the same roster. Considering the elite level at which Duke recruits, there is no reason to think the embrace will end.
Some years, the reward will outweigh that risk, and the Blue Devils will soar. Other years, they’ll play like freshmen.
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