The Champions League semifinals continue on Tuesday. Here is a statistical look at both matches this week, complete with Soccer Power Index (SPI) projections:
Bayern Munich vs. Atletico Madrid (Tuesday)
With a 1-0 win at home in the first leg, Atletico Madrid is now favored to advance to the final according to SPI, moving on 54 percent of the time. Though Bayern is favored by SPI to win at home, they would need to win by two goals to advance or by a 1-0 score to send it to extra-time, making Atletico the favorite to advance.
Atletico held Bayern scoreless in the first leg, but it was not due to lack of chances. Bayern's 20 shots are tied for its most in a match without scoring this season (also Oct. 20 vs Arsenal), and its 17 chances created are the most without scoring. For Atletico, it was the fourth-most shots and tied for the most shots on goal (7) it had allowed in a match all season.
Not surprisingly, Atletico had very little of the ball as a result. Atletico had its third-fewest touches, passes and percentage of possession (26.5 percent) in a match this season. The only two matches where it had fewer were both quarterfinal legs against Barcelona.
RECOMMENDED SURE BET:
SOCCER PREDICTIONS FOR MONDAY
02-05-2016
Bahrain » Premier League 2015/2016 :
Busaiteen - Al Riffa (0:2)2 Alternative Handicap.
Manama Club -
Al-Muharraq (0:2)2
Alternative Handicap.
Denmark » Superliga
2015/2016:
Esbjerg - Odense 1win
England » Premier
League 2015/2016:
Chelsea – Tottenham 1win (BANKER
GAME)
England » Championship
2015/2016:
Brighton – Derby (0:2)2 Alternative Handicap.
Burnley - QPR 1win(BANKER GAME)
Germany » Bundesliga
2015/2016:
Werder Bremen - VfB
Stuttgart over1 GOALS
Italy » Serie A
2015/2016:
Genoa - AS Roma 2win (BANKER
GAME)
Napoli - Atalanta 1win
It wasn't just that Atletico had little of the ball, when it did it was primarily in its own half. 61 percent of
Atletico's touches came in the defending half, its third-most in a match this season, and its most in a win. In the second half, 67 percent of its touches were in the defending half.
Real Madrid vs. Manchester City (Wednesday)
After a goalless first leg in Manchester, Real Madrid is a massive favorite to advance to the final according to SPI, moving on 74 percent of the time. As the higher-rated team on both offense and defense, Real should win the second leg at home.
Though City technically does not need to score to advance, the club will have to do more than it did in the first leg if it wants to put one in the back of the net. City took four total shots in the first leg and put only one on target, both of which are tied for its fewest in a Premier League or UCL match this season.
Only one of City's shots came from inside the penalty area, its fewest in a Premier League or UCL match in over five years, since it also had one in March of 2011 against Chelsea. As a result, City was expected to score 0.19 goals in the match (based on type and location of shots), its fewest in a Premier League or UCL match in the past six seasons.
Real Madrid will hope to play more like it did in the second half against City in the second leg. In the first half of the match, Real had two shots, neither of which were on target; in the second half, Real had 11 shots and created eight chances.
Updated title odds: With Bayern Munich an underdog to advance, Real Madrid takes over as the title favorite, with a 37 percent chance to win according to SPI. Atletico Madrid (28 percent) moves into second just slightly ahead of Bayern Munich (27 percent), and Manchester City remains fourth (8 percent.)
CREDIT TO:http://www.espnfc.co.uk/blog/five-aside/77/post/2863174/bayern-vs-atletico-real-madrid-vs-man-city-a-statistical-look-at-ucl-semifinals
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